Analysis

Race for the Champions League Spot

Premier-league-top-four-race

A top four place in Unai Emery’s first season will be seen as the icing on the cake by most Gunners fans. We are not the finished article, but there is little doubt there has been a vast improvement in a lot of key areas. This is the one and only season where the Spaniard will be given anything remotely resembling patience by the fans and media, so while the pressure is somewhat off, we have to try and make hay. With just a handful of games left, four into two do not go, so what do the run-ins look like for Arsenal and our three rivals for those Champions League places?

Unai_Emery_Sevilla

A top four finish would be a fitting end to Emery’s debut season

Arsenal

It is hard not to look forward to the summer, and think which of the obvious weaknesses need to be bolstered, but we still very much have a job to do in the remaining fixtures if the season is not going to ultimately end in disappointment.

  • Watford Away
  • Palace Home
  • Wolves Away
  • Leicester Away
  • Brighton Home
  • Burnley Away

The obvious thing that jumps out from that list is the away games. Both the number of them, and the opposition. The main criticism of the team this year has been how they have coped away from the Emirates, and I am not sure how many punters, Arsenal fans or not, will have the Gunners down for an away win at Watford, Wolves or Leicester. The two home games need to and should provide 6 points, regardless of whether either or both teams are safe or fighting for their lives. The problem is where are the other points going to come?

Will the Emirates see Champions League football next season?

Manchester United

It still seems somewhat odd we are talking about these as rivals for a top four finish, but rivals they are. Form has dipped of late, and signs that the honeymoon period is over are starting to appear.

Their fixtures look kinder than ours, but are still a mixed bag.

  • West Ham Home
  • Everton Away
  • Man City Home
  • Chelsea Home
  • Huddersfield Away
  • Cardiff Home

There would appear to be three bankers, and the others could go either way. Solskjaer’s men do have the advantage of an almost certain 6 points from the last two matches, which could prove pivotal.

Chelsea

Will Maurizio Sarri be at Chelsea next season?

At the beginning of the season all eyes were on the two new managers in London, with neutral juries out on which club had the best man. That can’t be said any more, and it is irrelevant anyway, as no one expects Sarri to still be in place at Stamford Bridge come July.

  • Liverpool Away
  • Burnley Home
  • Man U Away
  • Watford Home
  • Leicester Away

Another mixed bag, but only the Burnley game will be against a team who will not have something to fight for. Crucially though, with the gaffer and players knowing changes are afoot, it is unlikely they will have the heart for the fight, and will more than likely fail to make an impression on the top four places.

Tottenham

It’s all gone horribly wrong, horribly quickly for Tottenham. Not long ago, we were told they were in a title race, now they are struggling to put up a challenge for a Champions League place.

  • Huddersfield Home
  • Man City Away
  • Brighton Home
  • West Ham Home
  • Bournemouth Away
  • Everton Home

The key factor for the remainder of the season is the number of home games, and whether their new ground will act as a spur, or instead put extra pressure on them. The fixtures are kind, but the number of games, coming on the back of the Man City trilogy will test their squad and lack of depth.

As it stands, it looks like a three way battle, with Chelsea falling away. In all likelihood it will go to the last weekend of the season, and as in all situations like this, points on the board are far more important than those that are still to be won. The fact we are having this discussion at all, is testament to the job Emery has done. We do of course have to kick on from here.

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