Three weeks ago Manchester City were three points clear of Arsenal. After their 3-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest on Saturday evening, they are six points behind, and the Gunners go into the international break top of the Premier League whatever happens on Sunday.
It is a nine-point swing in three rounds of matches. City have lost three league games in a row, away at Aston Villa, at home to Brighton and now at the City Ground, while Arsenal have won all three of theirs, the last of them a tight 1-0 win over Hull City at the Emirates a couple of hours before kick-off in Nottingham.
Mikel Arteta’s side have now won nine of their ten league games. City have won seven and lost the other three.
How did Man City lose at Nottingham Forest?
Badly, and early. Jair Cunha nipped in to take the ball off Josko Gvardiol and rolled in the opener in the sixth minute, and Liam Delap, the former City striker, made it 2-0 inside the first 20 minutes from a Xaver Schlager assist. They were Nottingham Forest‘s first home goals of the season.
Enzo Maresca took off Gvardiol and Marc Guehi at half-time, and Rayan Cherki gave City hope with a superb half volley early in the second half. But with City pushing bodies forward, Forest broke and Delap slammed in his second to finish it.
It is more of the same for Maresca. Gianluigi Donnarumma has now conceded three again, the defence looked all over the place, and Erling Haaland had a quiet afternoon against Forest’s back three. City scored once at a ground where Arsenal had already won 1-0 on 18 October.
From three behind to six clear: Arsenal’s title race swing
City started the season with seven straight league wins, beating Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Coventry City, Manchester United, Sunderland, Liverpool and Ipswich Town. After the weekend of 17 and 18 October they had 21 points from seven games and Arsenal had 18.
They have not added a point since. Here is how the last three rounds went for both clubs:
| Date | Arsenal | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| 24 October | Arsenal 2-0 Everton | Aston Villa 2-1 Man City |
| 31 Oct / 1 Nov | Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal | Man City 0-1 Brighton |
| 7 November | Arsenal 1-0 Hull City | Nottingham Forest 3-1 Man City |
That is three 1-0 or 2-0 wins for Arsenal, with no goals conceded, against three defeats for City. Arsenal’s run of league wins now stands at five, and their only defeat of the season is still the 3-0 loss at Brighton in September.
The top of the Premier League table
This is how it looks after Saturday’s games:
| Pos | Club | Played | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
Can anyone catch Arsenal before the break?
No. Brighton host Brentford on Sunday and can reach 22 points at most, Chelsea go to Sunderland and can reach 19, so Arsenal will be top when the league stops. The only thing that can change is the gap to second: a Brighton win would cut it to five points, with Brighton still the only team to have beaten the Gunners this season.
What comes after the international break?
The run straight after the break is the toughest stretch of Arsenal’s autumn. They go to Newcastle United on Saturday 21 November (5.30pm), host Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on Tuesday 24 November (8pm), and then welcome City to the Emirates on Sunday 29 November (4.30pm).
City host Fulham on 21 November, so Maresca has one league game to stop the slide before the trip to north London. If Arsenal win at St James’ Park and City drop points again, the Gunners could be nine clear when the two sides meet.
The October that earned Arteta and two of his players Premier League award nominations has carried on into November, and the win at Anfield, after which Arteta admitted his side couldn’t break out, now looks like one of the most important results of the season.
Is the Premier League title race already Arsenal’s to lose?
It is too early to say that out loud in November, and the Gunners have not exactly been blowing teams away. Hull, Everton and Liverpool were all won by a goal or two, and Arteta said himself after Saturday’s game that his side need to put more of their chances away.
But this is what a title-winning side does when the football is not flowing: it keeps clean sheets and keeps winning, while the nearest challenger falls apart. City have conceded six goals in their last three games and their problems look deeper than one bad afternoon. Six points is a real cushion, and the 29 November meeting at the Emirates is now a chance for Arsenal to land a heavy blow rather than a game they need to win to stay in front.
