Six years without a major trophy. Now Arsenal are looking at the possibility of winning four in the space of two months. It sounds wild, but the numbers back it up.
Opta give Mikel Arteta’s side a 97.6% chance of winning the Premier League, and they are favourites in each of the other three competitions still available to them.
The Gunners are in the Carabao Cup final against Manchester City on Sunday, the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals after beating Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 on aggregate, and an Emirates FA Cup quarter-final against Championship side Southampton still to come.
The pieces are in place. The question is whether Arsenal can hold it all together.
Can Arsenal win quadruple? – Odds broken down by competition
Opta’s numbers make for compelling reading. Here is where Arsenal stand across all four competitions right now.
| Competition | Trophy Chances |
|---|---|
| Premier League | 97.6% |
| Carabao Cup | 63% |
| Emirates FA Cup | 36.4% |
| UEFA Champions League | 32% |
Put all four together and Arsenal’s chance of winning the quadruple sits at 7.16%. That is not a sure thing by any stretch, but for a club that has gone without a major trophy since 2020, it is a number worth taking seriously. Opta also project that Arsenal are more likely to win two trophies this season (43.7%) than any other outcome, with three trophies the second most likely result at 32.1%.
What Martin Keown says about Arsenal’s quadruple Premier League and cup chances
Keown knows this territory better than most. He was part of the Arsenal squad in 2003/04, the season that delivered the Invincibles, when the club were simultaneously chasing success in the Champions League, the FA Cup, and the League Cup. It did not all come together that year, and he was keen to remind us how quickly things can shift.
“It’s testing but it’s a joy. To be in every competition is what you wait your whole career for sometimes,” he said. “In 2003/04, we went the whole season unbeaten, we were still in the Champions League, in the semi-finals of the League Cup and the semi-finals of the FA Cup. But you realise that things can end very quickly, so you play every game as if it’s your last.”
His message to this Arsenal squad was clear: love it, do not fear it.
On predictions, though, Keown was having none of it. “It’s one at a time. The one at the weekend is the closest, so go and win that and then set records.” Sensible words. Particularly when you consider that Manchester City still have a game in hand in the Premier League and host Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium on April 19. A win there and the title race tightens considerably.
Are Arsenal clinical enough to win the UEFA Champions League this season
The win over Bayer Leverkusen was impressive, but it came with a caveat.
Across both legs Arsenal created 3.34 expected goals and scored three, which sounds fine on paper until you factor in that two of those came from low-probability strikes. One was an outrageous half-turn effort from Eberechi Eze and a curling long-range goal from Declan Rice.
Chances were left on the table, and TNT Sports expert Karen Carney was not shy about pointing it out.
“I think they do need to be more clinical,” she said. “When you get these opportunities, you maybe see other teams that have played in the competition already tonight, they’re clinical, they’re ruthless. When they get into the final third… bang. It’s that instinct, cut-throat.”
It is a fair point. Compare Arsenal’s output to Paris Saint-Germain, who knocked out Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate despite generating a total xG of just 1.99. The European champions are ruthless when it matters. Arsenal are not quite there yet.
Carney summed it up well: “They’re finding their way, they’re in a great position in four competitions, but that last little bit in the final third, it’s going to be those moments.”
Sunday’s Carabao Cup final against City is the next test. Win that, and the belief inside this Arsenal squad will hit a level nobody has seen in years.
Lose it, and the quadruple dream takes its dent. Either way, this is shaping up to be a season Gooners will be talking about for a long time.
